{"id":6243,"date":"2022-06-06T17:17:45","date_gmt":"2021-11-21T10:17:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/ceco.vn\/dai-dich-covid-19-lam-giam-nhu-cau-clo-va-that-chat-nguon-cung-xut\/"},"modified":"2022-06-06T17:17:45","modified_gmt":"2021-11-21T10:17:45","slug":"dai-dich-covid-19-lam-giam-nhu-cau-clo-va-that-chat-nguon-cung-xut","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/ceco.com.vn\/en\/dai-dich-covid-19-lam-giam-nhu-cau-clo-va-that-chat-nguon-cung-xut\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0110\u1ea1i d\u1ecbch CoVID-19 l\u00e0m gi\u1ea3m nhu c\u1ea7u clo v\u00e0 th\u1eaft ch\u1eb7t ngu\u1ed3n cung x\u00fat"},"content":{"rendered":"
Nhu c\u1ea7u clo gi\u1ea3m<\/span><\/p>\n Tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u00f3a ch\u1ea5t r\u1ed9ng h\u01a1n, t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng phong t\u1ecfa t\u1ea1i nhi\u1ec1u qu\u1ed1c gia trong \u0111\u1ea1i d\u1ecbch \u0111\u00e3 d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn s\u1ef1 suy gi\u1ea3m nhu c\u1ea7u h\u00f3a ch\u1ea5t v\u00e0 xu h\u01b0\u1edbng gi\u1ea3m gi\u00e1 m\u1ea1nh. \u0110\u1ea7u th\u00e1ng 4-2020, ch\u1ec9 s\u1ed1 gi\u00e1 h\u00f3a d\u1ea7u to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u (IPEX) \u0111\u00e3 gi\u1ea3m xu\u1ed1ng m\u1ee9c th\u1ea5p nh\u1ea5t k\u1ec3 t\u1eeb n\u0103m 2009.<\/p>\n T\u00ecnh h\u00ecnh t\u01b0\u01a1ng t\u1ef1 c\u0169ng x\u1ea3y ra \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi \u0111a s\u1ed1 c\u00e1c s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m d\u1eabn xu\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a clo. V\u00ed d\u1ee5, gi\u00e1 PVC \u0111\u00e3 gi\u1ea3m m\u1ea1nh \u1edf M\u1ef9, ch\u00e2u \u00c1 v\u00e0 ch\u00e2u \u00e2u.<\/p>\n Gi\u00e1 xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u PVC c\u1ee7a ch\u00e2u \u00e2u \u0111\u00e3 gi\u1ea3m h\u01a1n 22% trong th\u1eddi gian t\u1eeb gi\u1eefa th\u00e1ng 3-2020 \u0111\u1ebfn gi\u1eefa th\u00e1ng 4-2020. Tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng n\u1ed9i \u0111\u1ecba, gi\u00e1 PVC th\u00e1ng 4 t\u1ea1i ch\u00e2u \u00e2u gi\u1ea3m \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3, m\u1ed9t ph\u1ea7n do gi\u00e1 nguy\u00ean li\u1ec7u etylen \u0111\u00e3 xu\u1ed1ng th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n. Trong b\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng ng\u01b0ng tr\u1ec7, nhu c\u1ea7u \u1ed1ng PVC \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi m\u1ecdi l\u0129nh v\u1ef1c \u0111\u00e3 gi\u1ea3m r\u1ea5t m\u1ea1nh. Theo m\u1ed9t nh\u00e0 kinh doanh t\u1ea1i Th\u1ed5 Nh\u0129 K\u1ef3, ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng kinh doanh c\u00e1c s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m PVC di\u1ec5n ra r\u1ea5t h\u1ea1n ch\u1ebf, nhu c\u1ea7u r\u1ea5t y\u1ebfu.<\/p>\n Th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng v\u00e0 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng xe \u00f4t\u00f4 l\u00e0 nh\u1eefng \u0111\u1ed9ng l\u1ef1c ch\u00ednh \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi nhu c\u1ea7u clo cu\u1ed1i d\u00f2ng. C\u1ea3 hai th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng n\u00e0y \u0111\u00e3 b\u1ecb \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng n\u1eb7ng n\u1ec1 b\u1edfi t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng phong t\u1ecfa ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng \u1edf ch\u00e2u \u00e2u. Nhu c\u1ea7u t\u1eeb c\u00e1c d\u1ef1 \u00e1n x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng m\u1edbi \u0111\u00e3 gi\u1ea3m m\u1ea1nh, c\u00f2n ng\u00e0nh s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t xe \u00f4t\u00f4 g\u1ea7n nh\u01b0 d\u1eebng ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng tr\u00ean to\u00e0n th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi.<\/p>\n M\u1ed9t nh\u00e0 s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t PVC cho bi\u1ebft, nhu c\u1ea7u PVC th\u00e1ng 4-2020 kh\u00e1 th\u1ea5p, c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 gi\u1ea3m h\u01a1n 30%. C\u00e1c th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng Anh, Ph\u00e1p \u0111\u00e3 g\u1ea7n nh\u01b0 ng\u1eebng ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng, ch\u1ec9 c\u00f3 th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng H\u00e0 Lan v\u00e0 \u0110\u1ee9c c\u00f2n t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed1i t\u1ed1t.<\/p>\n Trong khi nhu c\u1ea7u b\u1ecdt PU kh\u00e1 \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh cho \u0111\u1ebfn n\u1eeda \u0111\u1ea7u th\u00e1ng 3-2020, ph\u1ea7n l\u1edbn c\u00e1c c\u00f4ng ty ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng trong l\u0129nh v\u1ef1c s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t isocyanate \u0111\u1ec1u d\u1ef1 t\u00ednh nhu c\u1ea7u s\u1ebd gi\u1ea3m t\u1ed1i thi\u1ec3u kho\u1ea3ng m\u1ed9t n\u1eeda trong th\u00e1ng 4 v\u00e0 hi\u1ec7n nay kh\u00f3 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o s\u1ef1 suy gi\u1ea3m n\u00e0y s\u1ebd k\u00e9o d\u00e0i trong bao l\u00e2u.<\/p>\n \u0110\u1ed3ng th\u1eddi, t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng phong t\u1ecfa to\u00e0n qu\u1ed1c k\u00e9o d\u00e0i t\u1ea1i \u1ea4n \u0110\u1ed9 – th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng nh\u1eadp kh\u1ea9u quan tr\u1ecdng \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi d\u1eabn xu\u1ea5t clo l\u00e0 EDC, VCM v\u00e0 PVC – \u0111\u00e3 l\u00e0m gi\u1ea3m nhu c\u1ea7u v\u00e0 t\u0103ng ngu\u1ed3n cung clo \u1edf ch\u00e2u \u00c1.<\/p>\n Trong khi \u0111\u00f3, t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng phong t\u1ecfa \u1edf m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 n\u01b0\u1edbc \u0110\u00f4ng Nam \u00c1 nh\u01b0 Malayxia v\u00e0 Philipin \u0111\u00e3 l\u00e0m gi\u1ea3m ti\u1ebfp nh\u1eefng d\u1ea5u hi\u1ec7u v\u1ec1 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng ph\u1ee5c h\u1ed3i nhu c\u1ea7u v\u00e0 t\u0103ng \u00e1p l\u1ef1c l\u00ean h\u00e0ng t\u1ed3n kho. Do \u0111\u00f3, nhi\u1ec1u nh\u00e0 s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t x\u00fat-clo k\u1ebft h\u1ee3p t\u1ea1i ch\u00e2u \u00c1 \u0111\u00e3 gi\u1ea3m t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 v\u1eadn h\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng su\u1ea5t trong th\u00e1ng 4 c\u0169ng nh\u01b0 th\u00e1ng 5.<\/p>\n Ngu\u1ed3n cung x\u00fat th\u1eaft ch\u1eb7t<\/span><\/p>\n Tr\u00e1i v\u1edbi xu h\u01b0\u1edbng gi\u1ea3m gi\u00e1 \u1edf ph\u1ea7n l\u1edbn c\u00e1c th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng h\u00f3a ch\u1ea5t, gi\u00e1 nhi\u1ec1u s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m \u0111\u1ed3ng h\u00e0nh v\u00e0 s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m ph\u1ee5 tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng x\u00fat-clo v\u00e0 clovinyl, v\u00ed d\u1ee5 x\u00fat, \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng do t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 v\u1eadn h\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng su\u1ea5t c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 m\u00e1y gi\u1ea3m. Nhu c\u1ea7u clo \u0111\u00e3 gi\u1ea3m nhanh h\u01a1n nhu c\u1ea7u \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m x\u00fat \u1edf ph\u00eda b\u00ean kia c\u1ee7a c\u00e2n b\u1eb1ng x\u00fat-clo.<\/p>\n Nhu c\u1ea7u x\u00fat t\u1ea1i ch\u00e2u \u00e2u \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c h\u1ed7 tr\u1ee3 b\u1edfi c\u00e1c \u1ee9ng d\u1ee5ng nh\u01b0 s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t gi\u1ea5y v\u00e0 b\u1ed9t gi\u1ea5y, x\u1eed l\u00fd n\u01b0\u1edbc, \u0111\u00e2y l\u00e0 nh\u1eefng ho\u1ea1t \u0111\u1ed9ng t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u1ed1i \u1ed5n \u0111\u1ecbnh. M\u1eb7t kh\u00e1c, do \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng c\u1ee7a d\u1ecbch COVID-19 n\u00ean nhu c\u1ea7u x\u00fat trong nh\u1eefng \u1ee9ng d\u1ee5ng v\u1ec7 sinh nh\u01b0 ch\u1ea5t t\u1ea9y tr\u1eafng v\u00e0 x\u00e0 ph\u00f2ng \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng.<\/p>\n Trong khi \u0111\u00f3, s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t clo \u0111\u00e3 gi\u1ea3m \u1edf ch\u00e2u \u00e2u, khi\u1ebfn cho ngu\u1ed3n cung x\u00fat b\u1ecb th\u1eaft ch\u1eb7t.<\/p>\n K\u1ebft qu\u1ea3 l\u00e0 gi\u00e1 x\u00fat t\u1ea1i ch\u00e2u \u00e2u \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng \u0111\u00e1ng k\u1ec3, gi\u00e1 x\u00fat trung b\u00ecnh t\u1ea1i v\u00f9ng \u0110\u1ecba Trung H\u1ea3i \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng t\u1eeb 220 $ l\u00ean 285 $\/t\u1ea5n FOB trong th\u1eddi gian t\u1eeb cu\u1ed1i th\u00e1ng 2-2020 \u0111\u1ebfn gi\u1eefa th\u00e1ng 4-2020, t\u01b0\u01a1ng \u0111\u01b0\u01a1ng m\u1ee9c t\u0103ng 30%. Trong c\u00f9ng th\u1eddi gian \u0111\u00f3, gi\u00e1 x\u00fat trung b\u00ecnh khu v\u1ef1c T\u00e2y B\u1eafc \u00c2u \u0111\u00e3 t\u0103ng g\u1ea7n 43%, t\u1eeb 192 $ l\u00ean 274 $\/t\u1ea5n FOB.<\/p>\n Tr\u01b0\u1edbc nhu c\u1ea7u c\u1ee7a kh\u00e1ch h\u00e0ng n\u1ed9i \u0111\u1ecba, m\u1ed9t s\u1ed1 nh\u00e0 s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t x\u00fat-clo t\u1ea1i T\u00e2y B\u1eafc \u00e2u \u0111\u00e3 gi\u1eef l\u1ea1i m\u1ed9t ph\u1ea7n trong l\u01b0\u1ee3ng x\u00fat d\u1ef1 \u0111\u1ecbnh xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u.<\/p>\n Ngo\u00e0i ra, s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng gi\u1ea3m do bi\u00ean l\u1ee3i nhu\u1eadn trong s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t c\u00e1c d\u1eabn xu\u1ea5t clo gi\u1ea3m c\u0169ng nh\u01b0 k\u1ebf ho\u1ea1ch chuy\u1ec3n \u0111\u1ed5i c\u00e1c nh\u00e0 m\u00e1y s\u1eafp t\u1edbi \u1edf \u0110\u00f4ng B\u1eafc \u00c1 c\u0169ng s\u1ebd d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng th\u1eaft ch\u1eb7t ngu\u1ed3n cung x\u00fat t\u1eeb ch\u00e2u \u00c1 trong ng\u1eafn h\u1ea1n.<\/p>\n Gi\u00e1 s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m ph\u1ee5 t\u0103ng theo<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n Ngu\u1ed3n cung axit clohydric c\u0169ng b\u1ecb th\u1eaft ch\u1eb7t do s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng x\u00fat-clo gi\u1ea3m, \u0111\u1eb7c bi\u1ec7t l\u00e0 ngu\u1ed3n cung HCl cho isocyanate – s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m th\u01b0\u1eddng c\u00f3 nhu c\u1ea7u th\u1ea5p n\u00ean \u00edt \u0111\u1ea1t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c gi\u00e1 cao.<\/p>\n Ph\u1ea7n l\u1edbn s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng HCl t\u1ea1i ch\u00e2u \u00e2u \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t \u1edf d\u1ea1ng s\u1ea3n ph\u1ea9m ph\u1ee5 c\u1ee7a ng\u00e0nh s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t isocyanate v\u00e0 vinyl. V\u00ec v\u1eady, s\u1ea3n l\u01b0\u1ee3ng clo th\u1ea5p h\u01a1n do nhu c\u1ea7u gi\u1ea3m \u1edf c\u00e1c th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng cu\u1ed1i d\u00f2ng nh\u01b0 xe \u00f4t\u00f4 v\u00e0 x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng c\u00f3 kh\u1ea3 n\u0103ng s\u1ebd g\u00e2y ra t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng th\u1eaft ch\u1eb7t ngu\u1ed3n cung HCl.<\/p>\n T\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng th\u1eaft ch\u1eb7t ngu\u1ed3n cung \u0111\u00e3 b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u th\u1ec3 hi\u1ec7n v\u00e0o \u0111\u1ea7u n\u0103m 2020, gi\u00e1 h\u1ee3p \u0111\u1ed3ng HCl h\u00e0ng n\u0103m t\u0103ng \u1edf T\u00e2y B\u1eafc \u00c2u v\u00e0 Iberia khi nhu c\u1ea7u tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng isocyanate gi\u1ea3m xu\u1ed1ng m\u1ee9c th\u1ea5p k\u1ef7 l\u1ee5c.<\/p>\n Trong khi l\u00e0m gi\u1ea3m nhu c\u1ea7u HCl, t\u00ecnh tr\u1ea1ng phong t\u1ecfa c\u0169ng \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ebfn ngu\u1ed3n cung HCl, d\u1eabn \u0111\u1ebfn xu h\u01b0\u1edbng t\u0103ng th\u00eam gi\u00e1 giao ngay.<\/p>\n B\u1ed1i c\u1ea3nh l\u1ecbch s\u1eed<\/span><\/p>\n \u0110\u1ea1i d\u1ecbch CoVID-19 v\u00e0 ph\u1ea3n \u1ee9ng c\u1ee7a c\u00e1c n\u01b0\u1edbc tr\u01b0\u1edbc \u0111\u1ea1i d\u1ecbch l\u00e0 nh\u1eefng s\u1ef1 ki\u1ec7n ch\u01b0a c\u00f3 ti\u1ec1n l\u1ec7 tr\u00ean th\u1ebf gi\u1edbi. T\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng kinh t\u1ebf d\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn c\u0169ng v\u01b0\u1ee3t ra ngo\u00e0i ph\u1ea1m vi th\u00f4ng th\u01b0\u1eddng. Ch\u1eb3ng h\u1ea1n, C\u01a1 quan ng\u00e2n s\u00e1ch Anh d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o n\u1ec1n kinh t\u1ebf n\u01b0\u1edbc n\u00e0y c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 gi\u1ea3m 35% trong qu\u00fd II.<\/p>\n M\u1ed9t v\u00ed d\u1ee5 v\u1ec1 t\u00ecnh h\u00ecnh r\u1ed1i lo\u1ea1n kinh t\u1ebf \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng \u0111\u1ebfn th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng x\u00fat-clo l\u00e0 cu\u1ed9c kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng t\u00e0i ch\u00ednh to\u00e0n c\u1ea7u 2008-2009. Khi \u0111\u00f3, nhu c\u1ea7u x\u00fat-clo t\u1ea1i ch\u00e2u \u00e2u \u0111\u00e3 lao d\u1ed1c m\u1ea1nh, khi\u1ebfn cho t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 v\u1eadn h\u00e0nh c\u00f4ng su\u1ea5t trung b\u00ecnh trong ng\u00e0nh s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t x\u00fat-clo n\u0103m 2009 gi\u1ea3m g\u1ea7n 20% so v\u1edbi n\u0103m tr\u01b0\u1edbc.<\/p>\n M\u1ed9t trong nh\u1eefng t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng c\u1ee7a cu\u1ed9c kh\u1ee7ng ho\u1ea3ng 2008-2009 l\u00e0 ngu\u1ed3n cung tr\u00ean th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng x\u00fat th\u1eaft ch\u1eb7t, gi\u00e1 FOB xu\u1ea5t kh\u1ea9u t\u0103ng l\u00ean m\u1ee9c k\u1ef7 l\u1ee5c 800 $\/t\u1ea5n. Nh\u01b0ng t\u00e1c \u0111\u1ed9ng n\u00e0y kh\u00f4ng k\u00e9o d\u00e0i do c\u00e1c b\u00ean mua \u0111\u00e3 \u0111i\u1ec1u ch\u1ec9nh l\u1ea1i theo t\u00ecnh h\u00ecnh v\u00e0 gi\u1ea3m nhu c\u1ea7u x\u00fat, khi\u1ebfn cho trong n\u0103m ti\u1ebfp theo gi\u00e1 x\u00fat r\u01a1i xu\u1ed1ng g\u1ea7n m\u1ee9c th\u1ea5p k\u1ef7 l\u1ee5c.<\/p>\n Theo m\u1ed9t chuy\u00ean gia t\u1ea1i C\u00f4ng ty t\u01b0 v\u1ea5n th\u1ecb tr\u01b0\u1eddng ICIS, nhu c\u1ea7u clo s\u1ebd b\u1ecb \u1ea3nh h\u01b0\u1edfng b\u1edfi s\u1ef1 s\u1ee5t gi\u1ea3m m\u1ea1nh c\u1ee7a t\u0103ng tr\u01b0\u1edfng GDP v\u00e0 nhu c\u1ea7u cu\u1ed1i d\u00f2ng y\u1ebfu. D\u1ef1 ki\u1ebfn, nhu c\u1ea7u clo cho s\u1ea3n xu\u1ea5t PVC trong ng\u00e0nh x\u00e2y d\u1ef1ng c\u0169ng nh\u01b0 nhu c\u1ea7u EDC v\u00e0 VCM s\u1ebd gi\u1ea3m 10% so v\u1edbi n\u0103m 2019.<\/p>\n C\u00e1c ph\u00e2n t\u00edch s\u01a1 b\u1ed9 cho th\u1ea5y, do \u0111\u1ea1i d\u1ecbch CoVID-19 n\u00ean nhu c\u1ea7u clo \u1edf ch\u00e2u \u00e2u n\u0103m 2020 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 gi\u1ea3m 12% so v\u1edbi n\u0103m 2019.<\/p>\n \u0111\u1ed1i v\u1edbi x\u00fat, c\u00e1c chuy\u00ean gia d\u1ef1 b\u00e1o nhu c\u1ea7u n\u0103m 2020 c\u00f3 th\u1ec3 gi\u1ea3m kho\u1ea3ng 10% so v\u1edbi n\u0103m 2019.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n